First things first – Okay, okay…so our predictions for the ladders for the women aren’t anything like they’ve turned out to be…but we’ve gone pretty close with the Men’s with 4 rounds to go of the Home and Away Season.
Back before Round 1…we predicted this ladder at the end of Round 18:
‘Borough Hawthorn Waverley Camberwell –––––––– Doncaster TEM MCC Altona Kew Albury-WodongaLet’s take a quick look at the State League 1 ladders for the Men’s competition now at the end of Round 14:
We’ve even surprised ourself how close we were!
Anyway, on to the important stuff.
In the men’s – the top 3 look pretty set with the 4th spot up for grabs between Waverley and Doncaster. MCC look to be too far behind now with the rounds and fixtures to play. So, if we suggest that the Top 4 will be Greensborough, Hawthorn, Camberwell and Waverley purely on the fact their goal difference is mega impressive compared to that of the Doncaster lads, then we’re in for a pretty hotly contested finals series.
Going on recent form, we reckon it’s fair to say that the ‘Borough boys will still be hard to beat but we reckon that Camberwell (we’ll learn a lot from this weekend’s fixture of Hawthorn v Camberwell) may have the goods this year to meet them in the Grand Final. The Hawthorn guys are prone to the old choke, and Waverley probably haven’t got the results strung together against the better teams this year to challenge for that second GF spot. It’d be nice to see a changing of the guard in the SL1 Men’s competition, but something tells us it ain’t gonna happen for some time yet!
Looking towards the other end of the competition ladder, it ain’t a surprise to see Albury heading straight back to SL2 – but again we find ourselves in a HUGE few games coming up for the cellar dwellers of Kew, Altona and TEM at the pointy end of the season. Any of these 3 teams could find themselves joining the boys from the wrong side of the border for a Victorian competition in SL2 next year.
Looking to this weekend and Round 15, it’s a massive game between TEM and Altona. Played in front of a parochial TEM crowd, the A’s will be up against it but with their season counting on it perhaps that “Shin-Boner Spirit” (™ North Melbourne Football Club) will come to the fore. Obviously a huge amount of pressure on TEM’s new coach in Phil Merriman to deliver a result in this game to save his new adopted club a relegation to SL2. To say that TEM has underperformed this year, would be a gross understatement.
The winner of this matchup, will give themselves some distance on the other, but we dare say that the onus is well and truly back on the Kewcumbers with their remaining 4 games of the year against 4 of the Top 5 teams in Waverley, Doncaster, Greensborough and Hawthorn. If they can scrape an unlikely point here or there they might be safe, but with the toughest run home of any of the bottom bunch of teams – perhaps their season peaked wwwaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyy too early.
In saying that, TEM play: Altona (this week), Waverley, Doncaster, Greensborugh
While Altona play: TEM (this week), Camberwell, Waverley, Doncaster
!!
So – where do we see this Season 2008 going now with 4 rounds to go?
We see a bunch of insanely well contested fiery games with points and pride on the line. We see cards, goals and biffo. We see the Top 4 remaining the same, with Doncaster unlucky to miss out. Greensborough to win the premiership and we see Albury gone….along with……
………….
it’s so damn close to call! IT’S MURKY, IT’S A SWAMP OUT THERE! OUR CRYSTAL BALL IS SO MUDDY!
But we say in the words of Gretel Killeen/Kyle Sandilands/Jackie-O…
“It’s time to go……………………………………………………………………………………………………..”
TEM.
Why we hear you all scream?
WELL – If Altona beat TEM this weekend, they go to 15 points. This would mean that TEM would have to win 2 out of their remaining 3 games against Waverley, Doncaster and Greensborough to avoid relegation. A tough ask by any stretch. We fancy Altona to win one of their remaining matches most likely against Doncaster or Camberwell – (turning around a 14-0 deficit to Waverley might be a bit of a stretch!) – but regardless 1 win should do it for the A’s which would undoubtedly relegate TEM. Kew have probably done JUST enough on the front 9 to see them lose all their balls into the water in back 9…and still stay afloat.
Right, we’re tucking this handy crystal-ball into storage…for the time being.
Related posts:
August 6th, 2008 at 1:05 am
MMMMM higgo and drake altona are without. damage altona’s chances it must..
Bust seriously, how long are they out for and can they beat doncaster or camberwell without those two?
August 6th, 2008 at 8:23 am
this weekend will be a monster…
August 6th, 2008 at 8:50 am
Camberwell have a tough run home and are not a tough team – struggle to score goals (V Haw = lose) (V MCC = ??) (V Alt = A’s fitting demotion – tough game) (V Wav = lose, won’t score enough games against a team fighting for finals)
Wav’s probably win last 4
Don will get Smith & Ford back for Rd 17 & 18
So that will leave the first semi between Wav & Don with aussie players back – what a game, think one of these teams will get thru to the GF with Greens leaving Haw to have their wake a week earlier and their coach safe this year.
Can we vote on which teams are demoted – and I vote Albury stay up.
August 6th, 2008 at 9:26 am
But master yoda, Young Matthew Guest will return from the outer nebula to face Toorak Espanyol Malvern…
August 6th, 2008 at 11:09 am
MMMMM intersting is the return of young matthew guest. Skills of the drag flick does he possess?
Team with the strongest force on the day shall win me thinks. Good game we shall see.
August 6th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Close game with great spirit you shall see, good games are played bewteen teams at other end of ladder
August 6th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
It’s “Hmmmmm” not “mmmmmm”
Yoda v Homer
August 6th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Wav cant perform against top teams??? 7-0 over Greensborough and 2-2 from 2-0 down against Camberwell to name a couple of results. Also, they may pick up a couple of handy players in the next few weeks so I’d have them right up there.
TEM underperfom? I’d say considering they haven’t had imports of the same calibre and for as many games as they had them last year, and haven’t had an Australian goalkeeper in the net, they have performed at about what you could expect.
Your predictions may end up correct, but not because they are an educated guess. Don’t blame the crystal ball, it’s for the future. All of the above mentioned is in the past or present, so should be basic hockey knowledge.
August 6th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
I am from TEM so i guess i am a bit bias but i reckon we will stay up.
TEM (should have beaten Camberwell!) have hit form at the right end of the season and KEW at the wrong end…
TEM and A’s to win 2 more games each and KEW won’t win another…
KEW RELEGATED
August 6th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Dont embarrass yourself any further statsie, Alt and tem to win 2 more games each, please. Tem have won 3 out 14, all of a sudden they are going to win 2 out of 4? Altona with no Higgo changes things, they are more of a chance then TEM though.
Did anyone deserve to beat TEM this year or were they all lucky? You will no doubt refuse to entertain the idea that maybe TEM were lucky to beat kew. Werent they losing to Albury in the first game?
August 6th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Had Kew not had so many injuries their good start may have lasted a little longer.
I think one of Alt/TEM will get relegated this year and the remaining one (or Kew) the year after.
Essendon in SL2 have a team that would have challenged for SL1 finals in 2008.
August 6th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Well if you have seen any of TEMs games including the borough game you wil see that they really should have got points out of all of them.
i see your point but i do think both A’s and TEM have pulled it together.
I reckon A’s could beat TEM, Waverley and Donny
and TEM can beat Altona, Waverley and Donny
obiously none of these games will be easy but they can…
August 6th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
And Albury can beat Greensborough – but it will never happen in a million years
As for Essendon having a team to challenge for SL1 finals – mmmmmmm or hmmmmmm or pffffhhh or there goes a flying pink pig
August 6th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
tem will beat alt and draw donny
alt will beat donny
kew will win none
tem will stay up on goal diff
kew to go down
August 6th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Ben and Ballza you should run a little nearest the pin comp with finals and relegation. Hve to say who will make finals, who gets relegated and make the tie breaker naming the results that produce the outcome. Use some of the gear you couldnt use for the show as prizes.
Make it a forum post. Name the top 4 and bottom 2. then of those who get that in the correct order, the results from last 4 rounds as a tie break.
August 6th, 2008 at 11:38 pm
Percie’s ludicrous penalty stroke that gifted Altona an extra two points out at the snakepit could decide who gets relegated from SL1…
August 7th, 2008 at 9:38 am
old ground and hate to agree with SM but we are talking about the RELEGATION BATTLE more than we are talking about FINALS.
Maybe it’s because we have a 2 up 2 down system where EVERY YEAR
August 7th, 2008 at 10:09 am
You might argue this is because there is more at stake. Finishing 3rd or 4th is only important to those clubs in the mix for it. A club being banished from the top flight for at least year is interesting to pretty much all and sundry.
Altona have been in the top flight for a long time. TEM broke the run of outs of the 2nd promoted team staying up (even though the 1st place moorabbin didnt) and looked like they could be an emerging force, and KEW finally looked to have found the formula to break their yo-yo status, get heaps of imports and get rid of that dud of a coach/bloke crackers. Think he is looking after their Pen A team, how are they going??
The soap opera element of it all makes it an easy sell. Donc, Cam, Wav have been good or there abouts forever and a day, which of them makes finals is interesting but all have been both in or out of finals in recent years so nothing reaaly exciting for the punters.
People stop at a car crash, they dont marvel at people on the roads driving perfectly.
August 7th, 2008 at 10:12 am
who cares if we are talkng a about relegation! it is in some ways more important then who wins…(for some clubs)
People will agrue no matter what relegation system there is…there will be teams that dont deserve to go down that go down and teams that do but dont get relegated. This is a part of most sports and we should just put up with it…
August 7th, 2008 at 10:24 am
Hmmmmmm debate we must not decisions of the past.
Bad percy’s descision was but many games there have been since then.
Tem’s i am from, but dwell i do not on previous decisions such as that.
In TEM’s own hands it is now.
August 7th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
sorry the old internet thingy died but as I was saying…
Maybe it’s because we have a 2 up 2 down system where EVERY YEAR one team who is PROBABLY BETTER than one team coming up from SL2 GETS RELEGATED.
This system contniues to be proved wrong with only a hanful of teams coming up as 2nd place team from SL2 ever managing to stay up. Crazy!
August 7th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Only 1 team in the last 25 years that finsihed 2nd in SL2 have stayed up (tem last year)- never beofre has it been done.
August 8th, 2008 at 8:33 am
Ah but it kinda helps when you purchase the Aust Goalie, 3 Spaniards, 1 stellar german and you have a couple of ok kids running around of a bench of 16 players…
Oh and they only stayed up thanks to one of the best drag flicking displays i have witnessed ever in a second half of hockey.
August 8th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Stat,
I think you meant to say “only 1 CLUB in the last 25 years.”
Because the team that finished second was far from the team that stayed up.
Another interesting stat your club could try and notch up is a being the first team to finish second in SL2, stay up one year and then get relegated. (in the last 25 years) I believe in you. GO!
August 8th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
TEM is not going to get relegated. It will win on the weekend. In terms of last year I doubt very much that one out of 36 halves of hockey caused a team to stay up. TEM stayed up. Good on them. Get over it. Does it really matter how they got their ‘representative players’? Is it any different to a Greensborough where their entire team is virtually made up of Australian and state representatives?
August 8th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
GB Wannabeeee – thanks for your reply. I am not from TEM, I was only trying to point out the fact that since Adam and Eve a 2nd placed SL2 team would of never, ever, ever, stayed up in SL1 unless they had spent a small country’s debt to secure their year in SL1.
I am more in favour on the eviction procedure eg. Hawthorn, your time in the SL1 house is over, you are evicted for your lack of contribution to victorian hockey or Kew, your time in the SL1 house is over, you are evicted for being a speed hump.
August 8th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
I think Kew are gunna be safe this year. It will come down to Altona and TEMs. Albury have already gone back to SL2. Who’s coming up from SL2? Essendon – they will stay in 2009, and probably Southern… going on the ladder that is. I doubt Southern will stay up next year… if they go up they’ll be down with Kew or TEM / Altona – whoever stays this year. The bottom of the pack will always be the bottom of the pack!
August 8th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
What has 1 out of 36 halves got to do with the price of fish? What are u talking about? It will win? will IT?
August 8th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
Well someone said that one half of flicking kept TEMs up. Last time I checked there are two halves per game of hockey and TEM played 18 games of hockey last year. That means they played 36 halves. So mathman maybe you have spent too much time at the fish shop lately…?
August 9th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
The problem with TEM SL1 is they have tried to blood too many u/18 State players too soon.Unfortunately they just aren’t up to SL1 at this point in time due to being too small,too slow or just too one dimentional.Brenton Perry must be asking himself why he made the move from Waverley were he was a favoured son.
Regardless of how they finish TEM is in the same boat as a most of the SL1 teams in that there is next to no one playing PA capable of making the step up if they drop the u/18 players.
Should be another interesting end to the SL1 season and I agree with Money Man in that Aaron K’s rd.18 second half last season was sensational.Without that effort they would certainly be in SL2.I don’t know what they’ll do without him in the lead up and then during the World Juniors next year.
By the way, who cares about overseas/interstate players coming and going as they in fact lift the standard.The problem those clubs have is their lack of depth,junior devlopment and pissing off good players who have been loyal to the club since juniors eg.Hawthorn and Donny.
Go Kookaburras/Hockeyroos!
August 10th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Money Man: You are spot on.
TEM are under the pump now. Oh well Mr.Brukner you six year plan for a SL1 flag is looking a little shakey. One should not make such comments.
It is amazing how altona do it????
August 11th, 2008 at 6:47 am
Tell me guru bob – who are the loyal juniors Doncaster have pissed off…..
August 11th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Judging by you comments guro bob I doubt you have seen much of TEM SL1 because the young guys such as lewie mathews, ben seccul and brent perry have all done very well.
As for last year people forget that it was more then one game that kept TEM up…They beat Doncaster in the second last round…But no one remembers that
August 11th, 2008 at 9:40 am
How do Altona do it?
The only club in the last 35 or so years that has not been relegated at some point. They are an extremely proud club that plays with a lot of heart that was very very very stiff not to get the points on Saturday.
Looking forward to the run home…
August 11th, 2008 at 10:32 am
You are on drugs, hows that counting of pre-hatched chickens going?
August 11th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Donny person-sorry that last point(…pissing off juniors) was more directed at Hawthorn with all their ACT players and only having about 4 under the age of 21 playing SL1/PA/PC according to my sources.I wonder where all their u/17′s from the last 3-5 years have gone?
Statsie-I think you need to take off your rose colored glasses.These young guys are very good as you don’t make the State u/18 team unless you can play.All I’m saying is they’re not ready yet and it shows.If they were that good the team would have won more games,it’s that simple.I know TEM could have won every match this season if it wasn’t for x,y and z,but they haven’t As for last season – you just don’t get it.No one remembers(or cares) how well the Dutch men played in the final at the last Olympics only Jamie Dwyer’s winning goal.Same story for TEM v.Ess. in the second half of rd.18 last year.People only remember Aaron K’s display and the result which kept them out of SL2.That’s the point being made.
August 12th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Guru Peanut,
I think you’ll find the ACT players and co have actually had the opposite affect (to what you’re claiming) on the juniors at Hawthorn. These outsiders have only strengthened the ranks by passing down knowledge.
August 12th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Which juniors have Hawthorn, Guru Bob?
August 12th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Sorry, English is my second language. Which juniors have left Hawthorn, Guru Bob?
August 12th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
Obviously a raw nerve(or two)has been hit!
Annonymous-I know you donate a lot of money to charity and even have a few memorable quotes to your name,so I’II try and keep it simple(Guru Peanut-ouch!That hurt).The ACT boys have done a great job in raising the SL1 standard and getting Hawthorn into finals.Those guys are worth watching particularly Josh Hawes and Paul McKinnon.As for them “passing down knowledge”,if you mean to Hawthorn juniors,I think you’re having a lend of yourself on that one.Tell me who other than Zac Hawes(u/17a’s coach),of these SL1 “outsiders”(your word not mine)have coached junior Hawthorn teams in the last 5 years?My chief guru says none,but he’s happy for you to prove him wrong.Actually, it’s not fair to pick on the ACT boys as they have had Aust./NHL/Indoor/family commitments.Although I still wouldn’t mind an answer seeing you believe they’re putting back in to juniors at Hawthorn?You may need to phone a friend on this one.
Bill – Everyone in junior hockey knows Hawthorn have gone from dominating juniors(particularly the girls)to now being off the radar.It’s also public knowledge that about 5 years ago Hawthorn had about 25+ junior teams and were the envy of the competition.How many this season?About 16 teams.What does that tell you?I’ve given my reasons above,but you tell me.
Bill,if you need to know names get a list of the top age u/17 juniors from say 2002-2007 and put a tick next to the junior’s name if they’ve played regular seniors in 2008.Bingo – you have the list of names of those that have stayed and those that haven’t.The question now is what are you going to do with the list and why have so many gone?
August 12th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Guru Peanut,
You’re clearly better connected than me. I’m observing from afar here however didn’t Jonathan Stebbings coach U17A a few years ago? I’m confused, if not the ACT players, who exactly are you pointing the finger at here?
The past two seasons have seen a number of youngsters blooded by Hawthorn – two are regulars in their SL1 team – the younger of the Grbic brothers (name escapes me) and Tom Sinclair. The last PA game i saw them play had a mixture of youth and experience which is a great balance to have. I counted 7 players aged U21 in that team. That statistic is a bit different to the 4 players across 3 grades you claimed?
As for juniors leaving, I can recall one promising junior that left the club. He was more interested in dropping pingers on a weekend than playing hockey and consequently was lost to the game. Happens to every club – priorities change. Look at Waverley, they’re facing a poor batch coming through the ranks. It happens!
Food for thought, isn’t it funny how Hawthorn’s juniors drop off at the same time TEM’s pick up?
August 13th, 2008 at 12:06 am
The younger of the Gribic’s actually played juniors at TEM’s. But then went to play at Hawthorn.
Was he poached? Or is my story scrambled?
August 13th, 2008 at 9:20 am
You need to put in the work consistently to maintain your juniors. Parents and other volunteers do all of this. When a Parent’s child is through juniors or they give away the sport, naturally that parent/s no longer do a lot of work for their junior club (some do, very admirable). Hawthorn were in a good spot a few years back, the people who did the work moved on as explained above, those who were sitting back taking the credit didnt roll up their sleeves and find similarly diligent replacements and they are where they are now.
I wont mention names as it is unfair seeing as im not mentioning mine but lots of girls who played juniors have left the hawks for varying reasons, the number of departures should cause hawthorn to look at the situation.
As for the boys I can think of one very good player who left, two potentially ok players who would have been great clubman and contributed a lot to a positive culture and one player who could have been very good but is just solid and plying his trade elsewhere.
As for the young man who was more interested in sat nights. Was never going to make it for varying reasons which I wont mention, and without being too harsh, is probably a potential influence on others you dont want at your club.
August 13th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Anonymous-a good name for someone who doesn’t really exist ie.a nobody
Your absolutely right you’re not “…connected”, very “confused” and “…observing from afar”.In other words you don’t know what’s going on which means you’re talking through your rear end.
My original points were that certain clubs had a lack of depth due to poor junior development and the problem clubs create if they have too many SL1 players coming from overseas/interstate.
Sure this helps clubs stay in SL1 and lifts the competition standard,but in doing so creates a long-term problem.Firstly,how do you replace these quality players.Secondly,aspiring u/21′s are hardly going to get a regular run in SL1 against International/NHL players otherwise the team will struggle.
There are some great young players at Hawthorn and I agree Tyler Grbic is one,but he like most of the Hawthorn SL1 team(my sources say 8 out of 13) never played juniors at Hawthorn.
Finally,why do you think Hawthorn/Waverley are losing junior teams and TEM/Camberwell are gaining?I have my theories,but maybe Annonymous is right -”It happens!”.
August 13th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Guru Bob, I don’t know names or have a list of the U17′s from years past. That is why I asked you, I assumed you knew from what you wrote & could give some examples. Quote “was more directed at Hawthorn with all their ACT players and only having about 4 under the age of 21 playing SL1/PA/PC according to my sources.I wonder where all their u/17’s from the last 3-5 years have gone?” I am interested to know who they are? Clarification: Stebbings is definitely not from the ACT.
August 13th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Stebbo is taswegian
Feddo played juniors
Strapp played juniors
Jenna played juniors
Tulloch x 2 played juniors
Best played juniors
Sinclair (when he gets a run) played juniors
Elder, Haylan, Johnstone in the wings, not that bad in terms of home grown
August 13th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
Bill,here’s the drill.
Step 1: Go into sporting pulse and have a look at the team lists for the last round of men’s SL1/PA/PC/PD for Hawthorn.Step 2:Show the team lists to someone smarter than you.Ask them who finished u/17′s between 2002-2007 and put a tick next to their name(note:not currently playing u/17′s).
You’II find there’s about 10 names with ticks next to them.Now stay with me on this one Bill.If you assume about 14 players(some years more some less)finish juniors then that’s 14×5 years=70 potential senior players.Let’s say the figure is 50,so 50-10=40.Where are those 40 players and why are you only retaining about 10 players over 5 years?That’s my point.
As for names just check State Teams/Hotshots archives(HV website) and you’II find your answer.Because you’re not big on research here’s a few Nolon,Hutton,Viska,McCarthy,Goldberg,Melville, Derham,Campbell,etc.And that’s just junior boys.
Now if all these guys(plus all those that weren’t in State/Hotshots teams) are playing in Metro 2/3 or injured, I apologise in advance and will declare you Guru Bill.
August 13th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
Facts – my point is the last 5 years not the last 10.So check your facts,re-work your numbers and come back to me.I’II make it easier.How many who left u/17′s in 2006/2007 play SL1/PA,C+D?1,2,3?Plus you forgot Tehan who came back this year from Old Xavs.Give Bill a call he may be able to help.
August 14th, 2008 at 10:15 am
There is no chance I am spending my time doing that research Guru Bob. I am far too busy planning the Junior Program at Hawthorn. There are some great names mentioned on your list above, how many of them are playing SL1/ Vic U21′s? You say last 5 years, they were U17, they should be 18 & above now & ripe for SL1. Any FACTS on their current hockey careers?
August 14th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Nolon – dance floor
Goldberg – Sl2 Melb High
Campbell – Sl2 Monash
August 14th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
While I agree that Hawthorn appear to have dropped the ball in regards to juniors, I would say it is fairly common across the board to have a drop-off of numbers from juniors to seniors.
And the players mentioned above were pretty unlikely to ever really cut it. In normal circumstances, you don’t leave a SL1 club as a 17-20 year old unless you know you are not good enough, think you are better than you are, or you don’t have the… I’ll call it “desire to be in that environment.” This is especially true about going to lower grade clubs.
August 14th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
I wonder if Master Nolon visits this website?
August 14th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Another reason for scaling back the juniors was that with over 30 teams, too many of the Hawthorn teams had their home games at away venues. Among many other great fixtures was the Hawthorn-Tem U11 district blockbuster at PEGS.
August 31st, 2008 at 4:13 pm
HATE TO SAY I TOLD YOU SO!!
KEW down and TEM staying up…